Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 2.025903 2.127292 2.235401 2.360065 2.500914 2.656437 2.843059
2025-07-06 1.881703 2.007783 2.147222 2.314885 2.513906 2.746629 3.045927
2025-07-13 1.820870 1.968177 2.136067 2.345308 2.604945 2.925523 3.367949
2025-07-20 1.788571 1.955449 2.150839 2.402597 2.728704 3.154390 3.789292
2025-07-27 1.735751 1.913055 2.124698 2.404171 2.778267 3.288900 4.103149
2025-08-03 1.691607 1.877409 2.102958 2.407386 2.827388 3.425774 4.447524
2025-08-10 1.625925 1.811404 2.038664 2.349197 2.785130 3.422220 4.557694
2025-08-17 1.586168 1.775499 2.010191 2.335919 2.803561 3.510487 4.848034
2025-08-24 1.551051 1.743591 1.984782 2.324355 2.822230 3.599853 5.163986
2025-08-31 1.519643 1.714896 1.961846 2.314167 2.841090 3.690675 5.510934
2025-09-07 1.500363 1.700752 1.957057 2.328515 2.897567 3.852323 6.078722
2025-09-14 1.453787 1.649626 1.900750 2.266010 2.828696 3.781738 6.051660
2025-09-21 1.428353 1.626175 1.881981 2.258527 2.849579 3.883647 6.540842
2025-09-28 1.392798 1.588304 1.842168 2.218094 2.813801 3.873654 6.712718
2025-10-05 1.383507 1.584640 1.848737 2.246193 2.892702 4.099053 7.770991
2025-10-12 1.382815 1.592178 1.870797 2.298516 3.017574 4.446901 9.750568
2025-10-19 1.365724 1.577028 1.860324 2.300082 3.053505 4.609218 11.252233
2025-10-26 1.350064 1.563286 1.851219 2.303081 3.092016 4.786527 13.356375
2025-11-02 1.318025 1.526447 1.808024 2.250209 3.023162 4.687518 13.204827
2025-11-09 1.299824 1.508123 1.790872 2.238139 3.030044 4.782885 15.098535
2025-11-16 1.282953 1.491194 1.775177 2.227612 3.038913 4.885861 17.719455
2025-11-23 1.267220 1.475447 1.760694 2.218330 3.049357 4.996091 21.586343
2025-11-30 1.258733 1.469432 1.760067 2.231418 3.104453 5.246975 34.401731